Hormuz Traffic Rebounds, but Gulf States Hedge

Traffic Returns, but Nerves Remain

Oil tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again in greater numbers, according to U.S. officials, offering a tentative sign that one of the world’s most critical energy corridors is regaining some life after months of disruption. But across the Gulf, governments are behaving as if the passage remains too fragile to trust.

Chris Wright, the U.S. energy secretary, said on June 9 that ship traffic and oil exports through the strait were rising again “very meaningfully” compared with one to two weeks earlier. His remarks suggested that flows have begun to recover after the severe interruptions that followed the regional conflict that erupted on Feb. 28.

The improvement is significant because Hormuz is not just another shipping lane. It is the narrow maritime exit point for much of the oil and fuel produced in the Gulf, and a prolonged interruption there can quickly ripple into global energy markets, shipping insurance costs and inflation far beyond the region.

Yet the rebound in tanker traffic has not eased the sense of urgency among major producers. Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are accelerating efforts to move crude by pipeline routes that avoid the strait altogether, underscoring a basic reality: even if some shipping is returning, many officials do not believe the waterway can yet be treated as reliably secure.

A Chokepoint the World Cannot Ignore

The International Energy Agency said roughly 20 million barrels a day of crude and petroleum products moved through Hormuz in 2025, making it one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world. Countries including Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain still rely on it for most of their exports.

That dependence has left regional economies and global buyers exposed since the conflict began. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has said traffic through the strait was for a time largely at a standstill and has warned in its base case that flows are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels until early 2027.

That sobering outlook helps explain why the current rise in shipping, while welcome, has not changed strategic calculations. Producers are not simply trying to survive the immediate disruption; they are trying to reduce a vulnerability that has been exposed in unusually stark terms.

Iraq Pushes North

In Baghdad, the government is moving to expand a northern export route through Turkey. On June 2, Iraq’s cabinet approved a plan to increase crude exports via the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network to 770,000 barrels a day from about 220,000 barrels a day within roughly two and a half months.

For Iraq, the effort is more than a logistical adjustment. It is a recognition that the country, one of OPEC’s largest producers, remains deeply dependent on southern export terminals whose access is tied to Hormuz. A successful expansion through Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast would give Iraq a more substantial outlet beyond the Gulf, though questions remain about how quickly the ramp-up can be achieved and sustained.

Those questions are not trivial. Northern Iraqi exports have long been vulnerable to political disputes, technical bottlenecks and security risks. Reaching the new target on schedule would require a level of coordination and operational stability that has often proved difficult in the past.

The U.A.E. Bets on Fujairah

The United Arab Emirates, which already possesses some ability to bypass Hormuz, is also trying to deepen that advantage. ADNOC said on May 20 that a second pipeline to Fujairah, the emirate’s key export hub on the Gulf of Oman, was already 50 percent complete and targeted for 2027.

Fujairah’s importance lies in geography. Oil shipped from there does not need to transit the strait, making it one of the few major Gulf outlets that can offer a partial hedge against disruption in Hormuz. The new line would expand that flexibility at a moment when energy security has again become inseparable from military risk.

For years, the EIA has noted that only Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. had operating crude pipelines capable of circumventing Hormuz. That limited bypass capacity is one reason the current scramble matters: the region’s biggest producers are discovering that alternative routes, where they exist at all, are not yet large enough to fully replace the maritime artery on which the market still depends.

Recovery, but Not Normalization

The result is a two-track reality in the oil market. On one track, tanker traffic is rising and some exports are recovering. On the other, governments are investing as though disruption could easily return.

That tension is likely to define the coming months. If shipping through Hormuz continues to improve, the immediate pressure for costly workarounds may lessen. But if the recovery stalls, or if insurers, shipowners and traders continue to price in elevated risk, pipeline alternatives could become less a contingency than a commercial necessity.

For consuming nations, the stakes are immediate. Even limited interruptions in Gulf exports can tighten supply expectations, unsettle prices and complicate central banks’ efforts to contain inflation. For producers, the issue is revenue as much as resilience: every day of constrained exports means lost income, delayed shipments and a reminder that geography can still dictate economic fortunes.

The recent rise in traffic through Hormuz has offered the market a measure of relief. But the rush to build around the strait suggests that the region’s oil powers are planning not for a clean return to normal, but for a world in which one of global energy’s most indispensable passages can no longer be taken for granted.