Xi Visits Pyongyang to Reassert China’s Influence

Xi Arrives in Pyongyang as China Seeks to Reassert Its Sway Over North Korea

President Xi Jinping of China arrived in Pyongyang on Monday for a two-day state visit heavy with ceremony and strategic calculation, opening his first trip to North Korea in nearly seven years at a moment when Beijing is trying to restore influence over one of its most unpredictable neighbors.

Mr. Xi, accompanied by China’s first lady, Peng Liyuan, was greeted at Pyongyang’s airport by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, before the two men joined welcoming events that Chinese state media cast as the start of a “new historical starting point” in relations. The choreography was familiar: red carpets, honor guards and images meant to signal ideological closeness. But the politics behind the visit are more complicated.

China and North Korea remain bound by history, geography and mutual suspicion of the United States and its allies. Yet the relationship has frayed in recent years, strained first by the near-total shutdown of cross-border trade during the coronavirus pandemic and then by Pyongyang’s growing closeness with Moscow. Mr. Xi’s arrival appears aimed at reminding Mr. Kim that, despite Russia’s renewed courtship, China is still North Korea’s indispensable economic partner and its most important diplomatic backer.

The trip is Mr. Xi’s first visit since June 2019, when he last traveled to Pyongyang in a display of solidarity after a period of diplomatic turbulence. This time, the stakes are higher. North Korea has continued to expand its nuclear and missile programs, rejected renewed calls for denuclearization, and showcased new military activity, including weapons production and naval development. At the same time, the United States, South Korea and Japan have tightened security coordination in response, deepening the strategic rivalry that China increasingly views through the prism of its broader competition with Washington.

A Relationship Under Pressure

For Beijing, North Korea has long served as both a buffer and a burden — useful as a geopolitical shield on China’s northeastern border, but destabilizing when its provocations trigger regional crises. China has little appetite for a collapse in North Korea, which could send refugees streaming across the border and potentially bring a U.S.-allied Korea closer to Chinese territory. But it has also struggled to restrain Mr. Kim’s weapons ambitions.

That tension has become more acute as Pyongyang has drawn closer to Russia. North Korea’s outreach to Moscow has raised concerns in Beijing that it could lose leverage over a neighbor it has long treated as part of its strategic orbit. Mr. Xi’s visit, analysts say, is in part an effort to prevent that drift from becoming permanent.

For Mr. Kim, the symbolism cuts both ways. A visit by the Chinese leader offers validation at a time when North Korea is under heavy international sanctions and diplomatic isolation. It also creates an opening to press Beijing for greater economic support, broader trade ties or looser enforcement of sanctions. Some analysts have suggested Pyongyang may also seek something less tangible but equally significant: a more accommodating Chinese posture toward North Korea’s claim that its nuclear status is no longer negotiable.

Whether Beijing is willing to go that far remains uncertain.

Symbolism, and the Search for Substance

Chinese officials have presented the visit in expansive terms, but it is not yet clear whether it will produce substantive agreements on trade, aid, border exchanges or security coordination. Much may depend on how far China is prepared to support North Korea at a time when Pyongyang is insisting on continued nuclear expansion and signaling that it will not return to old disarmament formulas.

China remains North Korea’s main economic lifeline, and even modest steps to revive commerce could matter. Bilateral trade fell sharply during the pandemic, when North Korea sealed itself off with extraordinary rigidity. Though some exchanges have resumed, the economic relationship has not fully recovered. For a North Korean economy battered by years of isolation, any Chinese easing — whether through formal trade channels, humanitarian support or softer sanctions implementation — could offer relief.

Still, Beijing’s room for maneuver is not unlimited. China wants stability on the Korean Peninsula, but it also wants to avoid being seen as underwriting actions that could further inflame tensions or invite tougher American and allied responses. That leaves Mr. Xi trying to walk a narrow line: reassuring Mr. Kim without fully embracing his nuclear course.

Why the Visit Matters Now

The timing of the trip underscores how quickly the strategic map around the Korean Peninsula is shifting. North Korea’s weapons advances, Russia’s growing ties with Pyongyang and the deepening military coordination among the United States, South Korea and Japan have all raised the stakes for China. In that environment, influence in Pyongyang has become more valuable to Beijing — and more contested.

For years, China’s leaders have argued that dialogue and stability, not pressure alone, are the best way to manage North Korea. But diplomacy on the peninsula has largely stalled, while North Korea has moved steadily to strengthen its arsenal and harden its position. Mr. Xi’s visit does not suggest a breakthrough is imminent. Instead, it reflects a more limited but urgent goal: ensuring that China remains central to whatever comes next.

The images from Pyongyang are meant to project unity. The harder question is whether the visit marks a genuine reset in ties or merely a carefully staged acknowledgment that both sides, despite their frustrations, still need each other.